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Netstat -vat by Sean Michael Kerner (bio)

A command line view of IT



Adobe Flash vs the Web and HTML 5. Who wins?

flashplayer.jpgFrom the 'did the web really win?' files:

I've been blogging a lot lately about HTML 5 and its video component. It's a game changing element that is also competitive against the current pervasive web video technology -- Adobe Flash.

But what does Adobe think about HTML 5?

During Adobe's second quarter fiscal 2009 investor call, Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen responded to a question from an analyst about what HTML 5 means to Adobe. Narayen is both supportive of HTML 5 as a standard that Adobe tools will support, while also being dismissive of the competitive threat that HTML 5 video might represent to Flash.

Narayen sees a real challenge for HTML 5 will be getting a consistent HTML 5 display across browsers, which is going to take a long time to do.
"It might be a decade before HTML 5 sees standardization across the number of browsers that are going to be out there," Narayen said on the call. "So clearly supportive in terms of making sure as HTML 5 is evolving that we will support it in our web authoring tools but from the perspective of continuing to drive Flash and innovation around Flash and rich Internet applications, we still think that actually the fragmentation of browsers makes Flash even more important rather than less important."

Considering that the current debate over which video codec to support in HTML 5 - Ogg or otherwise - is still ongoing, Narayen is probably right.

With Flash, the complexity of the underlying codec used is abstracted. If you've got Flash then you've got video. Yes I know from a licensing and patent point of view there are issues that concern some people.

Yet, how many users do you know that have ever complained about YouTube because it isn't using patent-free video codecs?

HTML 5 video has awesome promise with open video and a type of control that an embedded video player (like Flash) simply does not allow for today. The practical reality though (as Narayen indicates) is that pervasive HTML 5 video is not likely to happen immediately.

I do personally think that the day will come when HTML 5 video can in fact be pervasive. It will require the web video juggernauts - Google's YouTube chief among them - to fully embrace the approach and begin the process of educating both users and content developers of the benefits of HTML 5 video. Until that time, Flash will remain King.

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4 Comments

HereAndNow said:

Firefox, Chrome, Safari & Opera already appear to be moving ahead with HTML5 video, etc., so a "decade"?

I think the real issue is how to get everyone globally to upgrade their browsers, so web developers can confidently implement sites that leverage these new capabilities.

Perhaps a global awareness campaign should be launched, to highlight this issue to consumers & businesses. Most consumers & businesses probably don't even realize the drag they are creating by using out-of-date browsers.

GGcc said:

Microsoft will decide if HTML5 video will be the future or not.
I don't think it let HTML5 be another concurent of Silverlight.

Another thing : RIA can do more than a video player like "complexe" application.

j_chi said:

If html5 is developed with a plug-in option then it won't be held back by any one browser holdout. So if firefox / chrome bake the standard into their browser and ie / safari don't users could just add the html5 plug-in to those other browsers. Thereby having the same user experience across all platforms as java does now. This should also speed up adoption significantly.

Just an idea.

XCFan said:

As good an idea as an HTML 5 plugin is, I think the best plan (if you can afford the space) is to just use Adobe Flash as a fall back if the browser isn't supported. HTML 5 won't kill flash. At least, not until flash games can be done in HTML 5.

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