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Netstat -vat by Sean Michael Kerner (bio)

A command line view of IT



Linux at 1 percent?! Ha! It's more like 45 percent

tux.jpg
From the 'statistics are flexible' files:

There has been a lot of noise this week about new numbers from NetApplications showing Linux at 1 percent. That's 1 percent on the desktop as measured by one firm's sampling of a very large market.

The number of 1 percent on the desktop however does not show the full Linux picture. On servers, and especially on web servers Linux is somewhere around 45 percent  if we take Netcraft's numbers (assuming that the majority of Apache deployments are on Linux).

Yes I know I'm comparing apples to oranges (no pun intended on the apple and penguins don't eat oranges). The 1 percent number is a reflection of a general web user base and it is interesting to see. On enthusiast sites (and tech news sites) the Linux users number are likely somewhat higher.

Looking into the future just a little, it's easy to see how the Linux desktop number will shift dramatically between now and 2011. 

Here are two reasons:


1) Fast boot silicon
Many notebook vendors and motherboard makers in general, are now including fast boot options which typically are Linux operating systems with browser capabilities. These systems are not just netbooks but high end desktop boards as well.
Certainly, I would expect that many of these fast boot machines will end up being dual boot machines, but they will increase desktop Linux penetration significantly. In fact if the fast boot silicon becomes a default feature (and it sure is looking that way), Linux quite literally will be embedded - not installed - on nearly every new computer system motherboard.
2) Mobile.
Mobile internet usage is still in the early days of adoption relatively speaking. NetApplications' own numbers show relatively low number for the iPhone and Symbian operating systems even. Over time, there will be more mobile internet usage on handheld devices and many of those devices (should we call Android Linux?) will be running Linux.
It's great to see Linux crack the 1 percent barrier (in at least one study). Linux still has some distance to cover on the desktop side, but it's path to adoption will in the end be similar to the Microsoft one.

The consumer masses don't really care (or even know) in many respects about the differences in operating systems, they buy their systems and use what is on them. As Linux becomes embedded on more phones and motherboards, consumers will just simply start using more Linux.  

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12 Comments

Bryan said:

Another fanboy article. Your statements such as "they will increase desktop Linux penetration significantly" confuse me since there is no supporting facts or figures. Thanks for the laugh! Linux should be happy with 1%

Jason said:

Another fanboy comment. Your blatant rudeness confuses me as it was doesn't concern you (as you are neither a Microsoft salesman nor a Linux user). Thanks for the laugh! You should be happy to get your name published; call your mother and let her know.

frank said:

Hey Brian...just wanted to let you know that I'm happy...

Regards,

Linux

Here's my prediction:
"Over the next 1 to 3 years, and beyond, we are set to see the glory of the GNU/Linux operating system take hold as the prominently used end user platform for computers everywhere."

Are you ready to break the glass? I am.

Shannon VanWagner
humans enabled

Richard Chapman said:

"Thanks for the laugh!"

You're welcome. Try not to choke on your tongue though. We need you around for entertainment purposes.

Marco A. Cruz Quevedo said:

In [http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp] Linux is about 4.0 % !

Regards,

Marco.
---
Freedom is not a permission for chaos.

David Legg said:

The stats are fishy, but I enjoy the mood :)

Tony Young said:

One of the most fascinating things to watch in the comments that are appended to these types of articles is the way the "antagonists" use broad brush statements to tar and feather the parent article, but produce no data to back up their own comments. Generally speaking, these "negative comments without any substance" are merely designed to heap scorn on an alternative position, ridicule something that they do not understand, or worst of all try to destroy the message and shoot the messenger by personal attack.

"Bryan" for instance, hastened to the fray and just threw as much verbal mud as possible.....but offered nothing to support his counter claims. Given this, one could reasonably infer that "Bryan" is simply looking for an argument for an argument's sake and his statement can be safely ignored. Certainly, he has presented an opinion and it reflects his position I suppose, but then, that can be said of all of us. I for one tend to think there is more truth in what Sean is saying than "Bryan" would like us to believe.

Brett Dreher said:

Assuming Apache == Linux for web serving is quite an absurd claim in my opinion, while it's used for many LAMP environments the amount of *bsd servers running apace is quite large in the commercial space and you have no real claim to back up and differentiate between servers running apache on the multiple OS's it supports (a nice chunk is even running on windows server boxes i'm sure).

That being said linux is without a doubt a very dominate force in the server market and for good reason and there is little reason for that to change any time soon. Fan of Debian and all it's bastard offspring myself ;)

Harold said:

Marco it is mainly because people going on the W3c school website are generally computer scientist who have many more linux users than typical users.

In the context of "the OS War", and arguments about the comparative "market share" of Linux and Windows, and practical set-up and maintenance issues, quibbles about whether Apache installations are running on a Linux distro or on a BSD version are exactly that -- quibbles. (Especially since some Apache servers are running on Windows.)

Anyone who prefers a Linux platform over a Windows platform will generally tend look at the BSDs as roughly equivalent to the Linuxen, for almost any issue in which comparison to Windows is at all relevant (eg. stability and reliability, flexibility, efficiency, and security -- licensing will be the only potentially really big distinction, but even then BSD will still be preferred to Windows).

pedro said:

I started to use Linux in 2006, until then i had only used Microsoft OS's for 8 years, during 2007 I had the chance to try Apple, Based on my experience I can say that: Once you try Linux, and learn how to use it, you never go back!
Or at least you never go back to Microsoft eventually there may by a few cases of Linux user that may change to Apple, but never completely, for many reasons, but specially because Linux is open-source.
My personal experience makes me think that the number of Linux users will certainly increase, it may be a slow process, but the growth of Linux community will continue.

world wide we may be only 1% or 5%, but in some countries we are at least 10%.

Linux user since 2006 (Ubuntu), Debian user since the end of 2008!

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