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Eye of the Needle by David Needle (bio)

Insights from Silicon Valley and beyond



Google laughs off the 'Osborne Effect'

I’m guessing not many folks at Google are old enough to remember Adam Osborne (though CEO Eric Schmidt is one). Back in the ’80s Osborne’s namesake Osborne Computer Corp. introduced the first popular portable computer.

In those days, a 25-pound luggable qualified as portable and the Osborne sold like hotcakes.

But It was also one of the great early flameouts of the PC era. Osborne made the mistake of pre-announcing a successor machine months before it could be delivered and sales of its existing line dried up sending the company into a tailspin it never recovered from. The preannouncement, while according to some accounts wasn’t the main cause of Osborne’s demise, became known as the “Osborne Effect,” a cautionary tale for any company considering pre-announcing products before they’re available.

But there have been many significance pre-announcements of new tech products. The famously secretive Apple previewed the iPhone six months ahead of delivery. The company said the details would have come out in its FCC filing so it figured better to spill the beans on its own terms. More importantly, Apple didn’t have to worry about dampening sales since the iPhone was its first foray in the phone market.

Google looks a year ahead

Another big reason not to pre-release details is it tips off the competition, but in the world of open source and Web services that isn’t always a priority.

Google’s Chrome OS preview yesterday is a case in point. The company showed off an early version of its Chrome OS, but said it wouldn’t be available till a year from now in time for the 2010 holiday season.

Thumbnail image for Thumbnail image for Sundhar and Matt Google Chrome.jpg Sundar Pichai and Matthew Papakipos, engineering director for Google Chrome OS, talk up the new operating system at Google’s headquarters. (Photo by David Needle)

“We’re opening up the project a year ahead of release. A lot of the UI will change and one thing I can guarantee is it won’t look like it does today, but important concepts will carry over,”, said Sundar Pichai, Google’s vice president of product management.

While much of the media focus was on the news that Chrome OS will initially be available on a new class of netbooks, the company really wanted to get the word out that the OS is an open source project — an effort nicely detailed by my colleague Sean Michael Kerner yesterday. That means getting outside developers involved early and often.

Google said it’s working with netbook manufacturers to deliver a better consumer experience than the current models offer. This will include bigger screens, full-sized keyboards and solid state drives that will boot the system in seven seconds or less.

(Side note: Hallelujah. I’ve been hearing promises of fast PC startup times from Intel and Microsoft for over a decade. SSD drives finally deliver on that promise. They haven’t become a staple of mainstream notebooks or desktops due to their higher cost and relatively limited capacity, but it looks like the netbook market is a good fit).

Analyst Greg Sterling said the new Chrome OS notebooks will have to come in under $500 by next Christmas and probably under $400 to achieve significant sales.

Given that’s about what netbooks are selling for today, that could be a pretty enticing package — a 12- to 14-inch screen, near-instant on netbook that’s always saving my work to the cloud and runs any number of Web applications and games.

Maybe I should hold off buying a netbook this year.

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1 Comments

A great business insight and I share your excitement about SSD and quick boots. If I can land a full size k/b, 12" screen and Chrome OS for $400.. happy days.

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